1.0 Introduction andJustification for the Analyses
After all Oxfam affiliates (Oxfam Novib, Oxfam Great Britain, Oxfam Quebec, and Oxfam America) operating in Nigeria were consolidated into the One Oxfam structure, the Oxfam Country Strategy (OCS) 2015-2019 was developed. The vision of Oxfam in Nigeria is a ‘secure and prosperous country, where the benefits from economic growth are shared so the basic needs of all people are met; where the rights of women are respected; where all people, especially the youth, can participate in decision making and influence the policies that impact on their lives; and where public and private sector institutions are accountable and transparent’. The OCS fashioned out of that vision has four strategic goals: a) Saving Lives b) Sustainable Income for the Poor c)Transform Attitudes about Women’s Right and d) Increase Active Citizenship and Accountability of Public and Private Sectors. The implementation of the OCS is coming to an end in September, 2020.
During this five-year period of the OCS, important changes have taken place in Nigeria. Some of these changes both external and internal happened faster and are relatively at larger scale. For the external changes, even though it was a known fact that Nigeria is a highly unstable oil economy, Nigeria was in and out of recession during this period. It has become the world capital of poverty with alarming rise in the rate of people living in extreme poverty as indicated by the World Poverty Clock. Nigeria has an increasing number of Internally Displaced Persons, and a sharp rise in terrorism and insurgency created by Boko Haram. But at the same time, the country developed the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan to restore economic growth while leveraging “the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people”. It increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 5% to 7.5% in a bid to increase domestic revenue generation. The Buhari’s administration has come up with the presidential plan to lift 100 million people out of poverty in 10 years. The country has developed the Agricultural Policy Promotion (APP) to drive the growth and development of agriculture sector in Nigeria and has created the agricultural anchor borrower programme to promote agriculture as a business and developed the National Social Safety Net Program for the most vulnerable of the society. Additionally, the country has recently become a signatory to the Africa Continental free Trade Agreement.
Politically and socially, Nigeria has experienced political elections rigging, judicialization of the Nigeria electoral system and politization of the judiciary. The country has seen increasing rate of civil activism, and increasing demand for constitutional restructuring of Nigeria’s current Federalism and many more. The period has also seen the intermittent unrest by the Niger-Delta militants, debate for the passage of anti-social media bill, the passing of the ‘Not-too-young-to-run’ bill into law, the environmental cleanup of Ogoni oil polluted lands and waters, the continuous push for gender equality and affirmative actions, the creation of sub-national security outfits by state governors, the discovery of oil & gas deposits in Bauchi State. Like any other country in the world, Nigeria has been badly impacted by the global pandemic COVID-19 that heightened the threats against lives and livelihoods of Nigerians.
Beyond these changes that have happened, many more changes are anticipated to happen in future after the end of the OCS in September 2020. For example, the unpredictable outcomes of the 2023 presidential elections, the appointment of a new Governor for the Central Bank of Nigeria and the looming recession of the economy due to the destabilizing impact of COVID-19; the possibility of Nigeria becoming a failed state as insurgency, banditry and terrorism ravage most part of the country. There is the possibility of acute food shortage resulting from frequent killings of farmers by herdsmen, exploding national population and the raging impact COVID-19 locking down people at home and restricting movements including support to agricultural production. There is risk of sovereign insolvency resulting from increasing and uncontrollable debt portfolio, and the fact that the world may not reach the sustainable development goals because of Nigeria and that 25% of the world poorest may be living in the country by 2030.
In terms of internal changes, Oxfam in Nigeria has to become an influencing hub together with two other countries in the West Africa Region as a result of the decision from the Executive Board to implement the country mapping review (CMR) and reshape the presence of Oxfam in countries and globally. Becoming an influencing hub is about rethinking and transforming the operating models of Oxfam Nigeria by “reducing progressively Oxfam program footprint, while maintaining substantive programmatic work, focusing more on influencing and advocacy, engaging more with the private sector and working more in urban and peri-urban settings with Women Right Organizations (WROs) and Youth Movements”. It is also about developing new relationships with and harnessing the influence of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for broader impacts at scale for Nigeria and members states where Oxfam works.
These and many more changes highlighted above have necessitated the need to conduct a context analysis. It will provide a basis for which Oxfam Nigeria can design a new country strategy plan that is expected to run from 2020-2025. The context analysis will strengthen Oxfam’s understanding of the external operating environment and develop appropriate strategies to effectively respond to these evolving changes. The analysis is expected to specifically target Political, Social, technological, environmental, legal and ethical contexts, and gender-related subjects in the Nigeria’s economy. It will explore how decisions get made in Nigeria and how they can be influenced. As Oxfam sharpens its understanding of how Nigeria operates, this analysis will help Oxfam adapt to the external and internal changes. It will also explore how Oxfam can better program to help Nigeria. It will try to piece together the “silver bullet (s)” that will contribute to uplifting Nigeria from its current predicament and will specifically come up with recommendations on how the Oxfam country strategy 2020-2025 can be more helpful, impactful and relevant to Nigeria, what future strategic directions including cooperation mechanisms, partnerships and funding modalities in terms of relevance to the changing development landscape in Nigeria and beyond. It will come up with recommendations on the critical role Oxfam can play in this changing landscape to be more helpful and relevant to Nigeria while remaining aligned with the broad organizational directions.
2.0 Objective(s) of the Context Analysis
The primary outcome that Oxfam generally seeks is to end the inequalities that drive poverty and injustice. The primary aim of the context analysis is to provide an analysis of the conditions that create extreme poverty and injustice using Oxfam’s conceptual framework in order to contribute to a Nigeria without inequality. The analysis will help identify effective program options to effectively and sustainably fight inequality to beat extreme poverty and injustice in Nigeria. Oxfam identifies risk and vulnerability, and inequality as the key causes and maintainers of extreme poverty. This context analysis will therefore x-ray the power relationships between and within the power blocks and other stakeholders. The power analysis will show power and resource distribution pattern across geographies, groups (ethnic, religious and traditional leaders, etc), private/public sector, gender, civil societies, etc. It will highlight what proportion of Nigerians are in control of the Nigeria wealth. It will show power equation between the large corporates and the rural communities where they operate.
The context analysis will support Oxfam Nigeria in the crafting of its Theory-of-Change (ToC), analyze the existing gender and power dynamics that influence and impact our work, provide a social and political analysis, power analysis and unique value proposition. The context analysis will identify the changes, how they happen and the change drivers and the changemakers and provide strategic steers for Oxfam Nigeria in the development of OCS 2020-2025. The key areas of focus for Oxfam are to identify:
- Who are the extreme poor in this context and where are they? Why are they poor?
- What keeps them in extreme poverty? What opportunities are available to extremely poor people? What poverty alleviation programmes are being implemented, with what success?
- What needs to change, what is already happening? What are the needs to be prioritized and what objectives can Oxfam work with for the future programmes in Nigeria?
- How change happens in Nigeria? Who are the key players, what influences them and how do they get influenced?
- Who are the changemakers in Nigeria and how to work with them?
2.0Key Review Questions
Adopting the power and system approach (The PSA is a theory of change, meant to locate a programme, project, or campaign within a wider analysis of how change comes about) and the trend analysis approach (that looks at changes over a defined period of time), and the multidimensional inequality framework (this is a tool that help assess inequalities through 7 domains of life) the context analysis will answer the following questions:
i. How unequal is Nigeria and why?
ii. What does economic inequality look like in Nigeria?
iii. How are economic, social and political inequalities interrelated?
iv. Which groups and states appear to be the most negatively affected by a range of inequalities? And which appear to be mostly benefited? Why?
v. How do inequalities affect women and girls?
vi. What trends are you observing in relation to inequalities? What is improving? What is worsening?
vii. What inequalities would you rank as being of the highest concern, and why?
viii. Where do you lack critical information that is a barrier to this type of analysis?
ix. What is likely to change within the country (at either national or local level) in the next few years? Elections and change in government (e.g What happens if the ruling political party, APC loses in the 2023 Presidential polls? Will the new party continue with the national social safety program that is targeted at lifting 100 million people out of poverty, change in the constitution (e.g if the Nigeria Federalism becomes restructured and regions within the country are expected to exploit resources within their states, and other items on the federal concurrent list are removed from the federal government and moved to states, also, At the LG levels, what happens if the proposed financial autonomy bill for LGs sails through to become an act? Will there be improved resource efficiency at the grassroot governance and by implication improved household resilience and reduction in socioeconomic vulnerability at the rural level? etc..
x. Are there any regional changes that would impact Nigeria in a big way? Nigeria joining/leaving a regional economic zone (what is the implication (in three years time) of Nigeria becoming a signatory to AFCTA.), war looming in a neighboring country that could mean a refugee crisis (crisis between the anglophone speaking Cameroonians and the Cameroonian government),
xi. How does the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) evolve to shape more effectively the economy and governance of Nigeria and member states and how can Oxfam harness its influence to that effect?
xii. What are the economic, demographic, geophysical or political trends that will shape change in Nigeria over the next period? Economic liberalization, introduction or revocation of a multi-party system (e.g With the recent revocation of party licenses from different political parties and Nigeria becoming a two-party state, what is the impact on democracy and its dividend, and governance)
xiii. What are the main obstacles (attitudes and beliefs, institutions, economic or political players) to progressive change? Repressive NGO law (What will be the implications in another 3-5 years’ time of the new NGO law on the civic space, social activism? What about the increase in VAT from 5% to 7.5%? what will be the medium term effect of the increase on the poor? Who benefits from the increase – the poor or the rich? Will this deepen the already existing inequality between the rich and the poor? What is the mid-term effect of the closure of borders on the poor?), high taxation, squeeze on expatriate work permits.
xiv. Which of these contextual change processes are most relevant to the prospects of poor and excluded individuals and groups – the people we care about. These changes could be positive or negative – stopping bad things happening can be just as useful as helping good things to take place. Women triumphing in local elections and influencing budgets, legislative changes restricting women’s right to work outside the home repressive religious laws undermining women’s rights (What are the corresponding gender affirmative actions from government to support all the gender-based policies)
xv. How are the changes affecting different groups of people in the country? Think about the gender implications of the changes that you have analyzed in the previous section, and how these are also reflecting class, ethnic and other social and economic classifiers. Please note that what is positive for one group of people might leave others behind. For instance, GDP growth may be great for the middle and upper income groups but may have come at the cost of rising inequality and hence may damage the poor and vulnerable disproportionately. As men migrate to urban areas in search of work, rural women and girls experience both greater economic vulnerability and increased independence as they take on new roles in supporting the family.
xvi. How are the changes affecting different groups of people? Think about the gender implications of the changes that you have analyzed in the previous section, and how these are also reflecting class, ethnic and other social and economic classifiers. Please note that what is positive for one group of people might leave others behind. For instance, GDP growth may be great for the middle and upper income groups but may have come at the cost of rising inequality and hence may damage the poor and vulnerable disproportionately. As men migrate to urban areas in search of work, rural women and girls experience both greater economic vulnerability and increased independence as they take on new roles in supporting the family.
xvii. Are there foreseeable (definite, probable or possible) critical events or windows of opportunity over the next period that could enable faster change? These could include elections, financial crises, political scandals, changes of leadership, new actors in civil society, continued humanitarian crises linked to climate events, new legislation, protracted COVID-19 pandemic, new epidemic/pandemic
xviii. What is the power distribution like in Nigeria? to what extent is power domiciled in the hands of specific individuals/groups?
xix. What kind of approaches are the different groups adopting to influence desired change?
xx. What are the key drivers and blockers of social, political, technological, environmental, legal, and economic change in different arenas in Nigeria?
xxi. What will it take for Nigerian economy to be just, for gender justice to become a reality, for climate change effects to be mitigated and the country have an accountable governance?
3.0Scope and Methodology**
The study will triangulate both quantitative and qualitative techniques in eliciting data from targeted respondents. The final approach and detailed methodology will be finalized with the involvement of the consultant when selected. However, the methodology should include the following stages;
i. Desk review of the available secondary data including but not limited to the Human Development Report, Global Hunger Index, SDG Progress Index, general country documents (poverty reduction strategies, legal and policy frameworks), development reports of Government), Governance indicators, Gender Gap index, Emergency profile/ index, financial access etc. This secondary data analysis should identify information on assets and return on assets, risk and vulnerability, access to quality services, respect, recognition and voice/participation, Inequalities/ Gender etc.);
ii. Key informant interviews with relevant government, private sector and I/NGO staff;
iii. Primary data collection (predominantly qualitative however supported with reasonable and sample based quantitative information);
iv. Stakeholders’ analysis (stakeholders can be organizations, groups, departments, structures, networks or individuals with an analysis of who is doing what in the context. This exercise should identify stakeholders’ capacities with consideration for what is achievable with existing capacities and ensure that your work can be both complementary, inclusive of others and assist to identify the critical gaps in service provision);
The desk and literatures reviews will take precedence over other activities and it is expected to end with an inception report that will detail a clear pathways or refined methodology for data collection. The analysis is intended to be structured into three components namely: a) Pre-field activities (inception report), b) Field activities (data collection) and c) Post field activities (data analysis, presentation of key findings to the Oxfam Program team, validation workshop, preparation of draft report, comments on draft report and submission of final report)
4.0 Qualification of the Consultants/Consulting firm
The selected consultant/ firm will be required to employ a multi-disciplinary theme (with livelihoods, food security/agriculture, environmental health, nutrition, education, gender/equality, humanitarian, governance etc. experience and expertise) to facilitate an in-depth analysis of the context. The consultant/s will possess the following minimum qualification and skills:
i. Post graduate degree in Development studies, Poverty Reduction, Rural Development and/or related social science discipline.;
ii. At least 10 years’ experience of conducting political economy analysis, research and programme development;
iii. A solid and diversified experience within the livelihoods, food security/agriculture, environmental health, nutrition, education, gender/equality, humanitarian, governance sectors, inequality, campaigns and advocacy ;
iv. Excellent analytical, facilitation and report writing skills;
v. Experience in the use of participatory and gender sensitive assessment/ research methodologies;
vi. Strong technical knowledge of risks & vulnerability and disaster reduction and management strategies;
vii. Familiarity with socio-economic trends in Nigeria and a working knowledge of local language will be an asset;
viii. Experience working in Nigeria;
ix. Knowledge of Oxfam and its work will be an advantage
x. Willingness and ability to travel to different sites in Nigeria
Schedule, logistics and deliverables.
The consultant will complete the work over a period of 35 days beginning with the date of signature of the contract and ending with the acceptance of the final report (Timeline will be finalized during inception workshop)
Tenders should include:
a) A cover letter introducing the consultants and expression of interest
b) A proposal of not more than 5 pages outlining how to execute the task with a clear framework, methodology and timelines
c) A two-page resume of each co-consultants if applicable
d) Evidence of experience in context analysis
e) A sample context analyses reports prepared before
f) Financial proposal to determine value for money
The precise timeline, data collection methods and tools will be agreed with Oxfam by the consultant (s)/firms.
The following deliverables are expected from the Consultancy:
a) Desk research (inception) report
b) Progress report
c) Final Context Analysis report
d) Programme Options: Clear recommendations on sectors/geographical focus/priority needs/issues/approaches that are consistent with the priorities outlined in Concern’s global and Pakistan strategic plans.
e) Power point presentation of the findings
f) Presentation of finding during a validation meeting with stakeholders
Annexures: Supporting documentation/field work records/minutes of meetings, summary of Contextual Analysis process The final report will be submitted in the following format:
a) Cover page clearly identifying the report as an evaluation and stating:
b) Program title /affiliate identification code
c) Geographical coverage:
d) date that the evaluation report was finalized
e) Consultant(s) name(s) and logo (if available)
f) Oxfam logo (unless not appropriate)
g) appropriate recognition of institutional donor support.
h) Table of contents
j) List of abbreviations/acronyms.
Structure of the report
Executive summary :This is a summary of the evaluation with special emphasis on the main findings, conclusions, learnings and recommendations. (1-2 pages maximum).
Introduction;Contextualization of the Context Analysis exercise, objectives of the evaluation, main criteria analysed with corresponding findings, presentation of the evaluation team and the process of the evaluation and its limitations. (0.5-1 page maximum).
Methodology: This includes a description of the methodological approach of the study, details of the sample, the methods and tools used for collecting the data.
Analysis of the information gathered:This part presents the analyses that have been carried out from consulted information, secondary sources and the information that has been gathered.
Results of the evaluation: This includes a description of the relevant evidence for responding to specific questions about the study.
Conclusions Findings from the Power, Political, Economical and Gender Analysis.
Recommendations: This part contains ordered, practical, applicable and prioritised proposals that provide strategic direction for Oxfam Nigeria in the development of the new OCS and also help improve the Management of the programme, and future interventions. They can also be directed towards developing different kinds of policies and strategies.
Appendixes:These present the relevant information that has been consulted or generated for the study, as well as complementary data about the process. Over 100 million Nigerians or half the population are living in extreme poverty Inequality refers to the uneven distribution of power and resources among people and groups based on divides such as class, religion, age, disability, race, ethnicity, religion, education, geography, gender and sexual orientation. An inequality lens acknowledges the interconnection between these mutlitple dimensions of inequality and consistently asks who does and does not have access to power and resources and why. Who holds visible power (observable decision making mechanisms / seen), invisible power (shaping what is acceptable -social conditioning, ideology, bias) and hidden power (setting political agenda behind the scene)? Even in the most challenging circumstances, people affected by inequality have the courage to hold those in power to account for their actions. These are the changemakers who will win the fight against poverty and injusticehttps://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198785392….https://inequalitytoolkit.org/intermon/public/ Just economies is when people and the planet are at the center of just and sustainable economic systems Gender justice is achieved when women and girls live free from gender based discrimination and violence Climate Justice is when the climate crisis is contained through responses led by those who suffer its impact most Accountable Governance is when inclusive and accountable governance sytems protect human rights and our planet
How to apply
Send your enquiries for tender documents and application to: NGA.Bid@oxfam.org