UNICEF works in some of the world’s toughest places, to reach the world’s most disadvantaged children. To save their lives. To defend their rights. To help them fulfill their potential.
Across 190 countries and territories, we work for every child, everywhere, every day, to build a better world for everyone.
And we never give up.
For every child, a Champion
The EMOPS Risk Assessment and Analysis Section (RAPS), has a mandate to improve risk analysis and forecasting related to contextual risks, at HQ, RO and CO levels. This includes developing methods and tools to support these activities.
Knowing the base rate probability of a potential event is critical to accurately assessing its likelihood. Using the base rate (I.e. the probability of a generic event in class without further information) as a foundation, and then using an algorithmic approach to adjust it based on available information, can help reduce common human cognitive biases that degrade forecast accuracy.
Structured country/year base rate information is not publicly available for most of the hazards that concern UNICEF. How much is held privately in the insurance industry and defence/intelligence sectors is unknown, but in any event unavailable. Base rates can be assessed using historic occurrence or modelling. This project proposes to focus on the former but use the latter in cases where models are shown to add value. In some cases, a shortage of historic data may support a decision to use modelled inputs.
The product described below will serve UNICEF internally at CO, RO and HQ levels, and be shared with partners via the IASC Early Warning Early Action Process.
RAPS is also contributing to UNICEF’s COVID19 supply allocation process, with a focus on data-driven prioritisation criteria. The consultant will contribute to these and other COVID19 efforts as required.
How can you make a difference?
UNICEF’s Office of Emergency Programmes is seeking a Data Analyst consultant to support UNICEF’s COVID19 response, and to develop and implement a project to identify frequency or (where needed) model-based base rate probabilities of occurrence at different levels of humanitarian impact for a variety of natural and human-induced contextual hazards, at country-year level for UNICEF Program Document Countries (approximately 135), as well as region/year and global/year levels.
- brief literature review of available base rate materials
- A brief methodology paper outlining the approach and data source(s) for each of the contextual hazards included in the final product (see following point)
- Global, UNICEF region, and country annual base rate probabilities and variance for the following hazards, for all UNICEF programme countries, using as much data is historically available, or modeled data as necessary, in Excel format. The following is subject to change.
- Flooding affecting >= 5000, 20,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000 people
- Cyclones affecting >= 5000, 20,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000 people
- Cyclones Simpson Saffir Categories 1-5
- Earthquakes magnitude >=6, depth =<300km
- Drought affecting >= 5000, 20,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000 people
- Armed Conflict >= 100 and 1000 fatalities (internal or onset, and simple yes/no)
- Ethnic/Communal Violence >= 100 and 1000 fatalities (internal or onset, and simple yes/no)
- Electoral violence >= 100 and 1000 fatalities
- Terrorist attacks killing >= 1, 25, 50, 100, 500 people
- Pandemic >= 100 and 1000 deaths
- Internal displacement >=5000, 20,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000 people
- Cross border inflow >=5000, 20,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000 people
- Other hazards, if identified
- Aggregation of the above to UNICEF region/year level, and global/year level
- Excel COVID19 supply prioritization tables as required.
- Any other related deliverables as identified by the supervising staff member
60 days over 3 months, starting May 2020. Part-time arrangements still covering 60t total days may be considered in some circumstances
The consultant will be supervised by the Emergency Specialist (Risk Analysis) in the Risk Analysis and Preparedness Section (RAPS), Office of Emergency Programmes (EMOPS), NYHQ.
- Graduate degree in social or physical sciences, or another numerate field
- At least one year of professional experience in the humanitarian sector
- Demonstrated statistical / data analysis skills
- Strong skills with Excel, R, PowerBI, and ArcGIS/QGIS
- Experience with online research
- Proven ability to conceptualize, plan and execute processes
- Ability to work remotely, with personal equipment/software
Fluency in both written and spoken English is required.
Call for Proposals:
Applications should include:
- Cover letter
- Updated CV
- 3 references with updated contact information
- Proposed daily rate, inclusive of all charges and expenses, as well as how many days per month you are available.
Applications without this information will not be considered.
For every Child, you demonstrate…
UNICEF’s values of Care, Respect, Integrity, Trust, and Accountability (CRITA) and core competencies in Communication, Working with People and Drive for Results.
View our competency framework at
UNICEF is committed to diversity and inclusion within its workforce, and encourages all candidates, irrespective of gender, nationality, religious and ethnic backgrounds, including persons living with disabilities, to apply to become a part of the organization.
UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check.
Mobility is a condition of international professional employment with UNICEF and an underlying premise of the international civil service.
Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process.
Individuals engaged under a consultancy or individual contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants and Individual Contractors. Consultants and individual contractors are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws.
How to apply
UNICEF is committed to diversity and inclusion within its workforce, and encourages qualified female and male candidates from all national, religious and ethnic backgrounds, including persons living with disabilities, to apply to become a part of our organization. To apply, click on the following linkhttp://www.unicef.org/about/employ/?job=531545