Climate Risk Assessment Specialist

A. About Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

ADPC is an autonomous international organization established for scientific, educational, developmental, and humanitarian purposes with a vision of safer communities and sustainable development through disaster risk reduction and climate resilience in Asia and the Pacific.

Established in 1986 as a technical capacity building center, ADPC has grown and diversified its expertise across social and physical sciences to support sustainable solutions for risk reduction across a broad range of specialist areas. With over 100 staff from 19 different nationalities and a wide range of professional expertise from atmospheric scientists to social scientists with experiences from all levels of engagement typically required for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Resilience (CR) in an effective manner. ADPC is a competent regional resource center and has seven thematic departments: ADPC Academy, Risk Governance, Climate Resilience, Urban Resilience, Health Risk Management, Preparedness for Response and Recovery, Geospatial Information. These are supported by Finance, Human Resources and Administration, and Strategic Planning departments. In addition to the departments, ADPC works on three cross-cutting themes: Gender and Diversity, Poverty and Livelihoods, and Regional and Transboundary Cooperation through permanent working committees.

ADPC Strategy 2020 guides the organization in providing comprehensive risk reduction support to countries and communities in Asia and the Pacific. ADPC recognizes the importance of examining the linkages between disaster risk management, poverty reduction, gender equality, sustainability, rights-based approaches, climate change and regional cooperation.

For details please refer to ADPC website at http://www.adpc.net/

B. About CARE for South Asia

ADPC is implementing a five-year project titled “Climate Adaptation and Resilience (CARE) Project for South Asia” with financial support from the World Bank Group. The project aims to create an enabling environment for climate resilience policies and investments across South Asia. This objective will be achieved through enhanced regional cooperation and knowledge exchange for climate resilience and adaptation and mainstreaming of resilience and adaptation in national policies, plans, and investments.

Until Q3 2023, a considerable amount of effort has been taken through the provision of advisory services for policy and investment interventions, promotion of Climate Resilient Design and Standards for the South Asia Region, and Implementation Support to Climate-Risk Management Solutions for Participating Countries in the focus sectors of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Integrated Water Resources Management, Resilient Transport Infrastructure, and Climate Policy, planning and finance sectors in the three project countries of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. This initiative was successful because of close engagement and collaboration with over 35 government stakeholders across the three project countries.

C. Background

Natural disasters have severely impacted the development progress of South Asian countries, including a financial burden. From 2000 to 2017, disasters in the region have caused damages estimated at $149.27 billion. This recurrent loss has placed immense pressure on public expenditure, as governments are forced to divert funds from long-term development plans to immediate reconstruction efforts. Pakistan and Bangladesh are notable examples, with Pakistan incurring losses of approximately $16 billion since 2005 due to natural disasters, and Bangladesh’s Cyclone Sidr in 2007 causing damages amounting to 2.6 percent of its GDP.

The various consequences of climate change such as heightened temperatures, increased heat and water strain, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and rising sea levels all have significant ripple effects on development and economic progress. Agriculture stands as one of the most adversely impacted sectors by the effects of climate change, with declining productivity resulting in the jeopardizing of agricultural livelihoods and exacerbating food insecurity. The cumulative impact of recurrent natural disasters is substantial, with each new calamity further diminishing Gross Domestic Product (GDP), individual resilience, and developmental achievements.

In Pakistan, every region is grappling with the adverse consequences of climate change, albeit in varying degrees and forms. From glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the north to droughts in parts of Sindh and Balochistan, and cyclones along the coast, the manifestations of climate change differ across the country. Nevertheless, the extensive damage and loss caused by these changes are so pervasive that few Pakistanis remain unaffected. Among those impacted most severely are marginalized communities, who lack the resources and resilience to withstand or recover from the effects of climate change, thereby bearing the brunt of its impact. This exacerbates existing inequalities within the country. Unfortunately, future projections for climate change in Pakistan offer little reassurance, indicating further temperature rises, decreased water availability, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

The economic ramifications of climate change in Pakistan are significant and steadily mounting, impacting every sector, from agriculture and infrastructure to trade and tourism. Through proactive measures to mitigate climate risks and formulate adaptation plans, Pakistan has the opportunity to diminish economic losses, bolster business resilience, and foster sustainable economic growth.

Pakistan has made significant progress in establishing institutions and formulating legislation on climate change in recent years, such as the enactment of the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2012, which was further updated in 2021, and the Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy (2014-2030), Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2016 and updated in 2021, and the Climate Change Act in 2017. This Framework and the NDC 2021 served as the basis for preparing National Adaptation Plan (NAP). The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) stands out as one of the most crucial frameworks for addressing climate change impacts.

The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in Pakistan serves as a framework for implementing adaptation measures, promoting inclusivity, and fostering collaboration among various stakeholders. Additionally, it acts as a valuable tool for mobilizing resources. By advocating for investment in adaptive strategies, innovation, and the empowerment of vulnerable communities, the NAP aims to protect the welfare of both current and future generations while preserving Pakistan’s unique biodiversity, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. This report is an outcome of the NAP process, providing background information on the Pakistan NAP and outlining its scope, implementation, and monitoring mechanisms.

Pakistan’s NAP highlights the provincial and local governments are responsible for developing and implementing climate adaptation policies and implementation plans tailored to the specific needs and vulnerabilities. This includes identifying local climate risks and vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities and designing strategies to build resilience at the community-level.

In terms of provinces within the country, Sindh is among the most affected province. Hydro-meteorological hazards such as torrential rainfall, flooding, cyclones, droughts, and heat waves have increased in frequency and severity as a result of changing trends in temperature and precipitation. In the current year, unprecedented rainfall and flooding have caused a wake-up call for policy and decision-makers to acknowledge the reality that climate change is real and will severely affect Sindh in the long run if concrete measures are not taken for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Upon recommendations from the Ministry of Climate Change, ADPC will pilot the formulation and District Adaptation Plan in District Thatta.

Like other provinces of Pakistan, Punjab also suffers from the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change resulted in the gradual alterations in the weather and food production patterns as well as the abrupt devastating weather events which include flash floods due to the heavy rainfall, droughts due to water scarcity and stress and extended heat waves. Upon recommendations from the Ministry of Climate Change, ADPC will pilot the formulation and District Adaptation Plan in District Bahawalpur.

Both Sindh and Punjab have existing Climate Change Policies from 2022 and 2021 respectively.

D. Statement of Intent

The Climate Risk Assessment Specialist will be responsible for researching, validating, and provide additional analysis to the existing climate risk assessments developed at the provincial and district-levels, and to interpret and tailor the results for formulating district adaptation planning.

Note:

It is not the intent of this Terms of Reference to cover every aspect of the position requirements, rather to highlight the most important areas of personal and joint responsibilities.

E. Duties and Responsibilities:

The duties and responsibilities of the Climate Risk Assessment Specialist is to:

Collect, analyze, and interpreting existing provincial and district climate data to understand historical trends, current conditions, and future projections of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme weather events.

Assess the district-level vulnerability of various sectors, regions, communities, and ecosystems to climate change impacts. This involves identifying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to understand the risks posed by climate change.

Identifying and analyzing district-level climate-related risks and hazards, including floods, droughts, heatwaves, storms, sea-level rise, and other extreme events. This includes evaluating the likelihood and potential consequences of different climate scenarios.

Conducting district-level sector-specific risk assessments to understand how climate change may impact key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, health, biodiversity, and tourism. This involves assessing sectoral vulnerabilities, dependencies, and adaptation options.

Engaging with provincial and district-level stakeholders including government agencies, communities, NGOs, businesses, and academic institutions to gather input, share information, and build consensus on climate risk assessment findings and adaptation priorities.

Develop, analyze, and communicate climate change scenarios to explore different future trajectories of climate change and assess their implications for risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. This helps inform decision-making under uncertainty.

Communicating climate risk assessment findings and recommendations to diverse audiences in a clear, accessible, and actionable manner. This includes preparing reports, presentations, maps, and other communication materials to convey complex information effectively.

Providing technical support and expertise to inform the development of district climate change adaptation strategies, policies, and plans. This may involve identifying adaptation measures, evaluating their effectiveness, and integrating them into planning processes.

F. Deliverables

The Climate Risk Assessment Specialist will have the following deliverables:

• Report on climate risk assessment in Bahawalpur and Thatta districts
• Preliminary climate change adaptation actions identified and validated by district government officials based on existing climate risk, vulnerability and hazard assessments.
• At least 1 training and validation workshop held on climate risk and impacts for each Bahawalpur and Thatta districts

G. Qualifications

The candidate should at least have:

• A bachelor’s degree in a relevant field such as environmental science, climate science, geography, engineering, or a related discipline is typically required. Advanced degrees (master’s or PhD) is desirable.
• In-depth understanding of climate change science, including knowledge of climate dynamics, trends, projections, and impacts on various sectors and regions. Familiarity with climate models, data sources, and analytical tools used for climate risk assessment is required.
• Proficiency in conducting risk assessments, including identifying hazards, evaluating vulnerabilities, and assessing the likelihood and potential consequences of climate-related risks. Experience with risk assessment methodologies, such as probabilistic risk assessment, scenario planning, and multi-criteria decision analysis, required.
• Strong analytical skills, including the ability to collect, analyze, and interpret climate data, statistical information, and spatial data using tools such as GIS (Geographic Information Systems), remote sensing, and climate modeling software is desirable.
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills, with the ability to effectively engage and collaborate with diverse stakeholders including government agencies, communities, NGOs, businesses, and academic institutions. Experience in facilitating participatory processes and building consensus is desirable.
• Knowledge of key sectors vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, health, biodiversity, and coastal zones is desirable.
• Experience in integrating climate risk assessment findings into policy development, planning processes, and decision-making is required.
• Experience in providing technical support and expertise to inform the development of climate change adaptation strategies, policies, and plans based on risk assessment findings. This may involve identifying adaptation measures, evaluating their effectiveness, and supporting their integration into planning processes.
• Proven experience in Sindh and Punjab province is desirable

H. Reporting Relationships

The Short-Term Consultant will report to the Climate Policy, Planning and Finance Lead and the Project Coordinator in Pakistan on a day-to-day basis, with oversight from the Regional Advisor.

The Consultant is also expected to coordinate with the project’s Sectoral Focal Points within the Ministry of Climate Change and other national and sub-national stakeholders in Sindh and Punjab province to discuss key challenges, approaches, and solicit further technical inputs and co-develop deliverables.

I. Contract Duration

The contract duration will be 3 months.

Start Date: July 2024

End Date: September 2024

J. Selection Method

The consultant will be selected in accordance with ADPC’s recruitment process and in compliance with the World Bank Procurement Regulations.