Tana River’s Battle with Climate Extremes

Tana River County lies along Kenya’s eastern flank, straddling the land where the 470-kilometre Tana River flows from the central highlands down to the Indian Ocean. Much of the county is arid or semi-arid, with only a small fraction, around 6.6 % being arable land. The Tana River delta is also one of Kenya’s vital wetlands, supplying dry-season pastures and supporting smallholder cropping when water is available.

Yet, this seemingly promising geography is under stress. Over recent decades, communities here have been buffeted by a cruel meteorological seesaw: prolonged droughts followed by sudden floods. The frequency of droughts in the Tana basin has climbed; what was once a once-in-ten-years event now arrives roughly every five years. Meanwhile, as floodwaters cascade over riverbanks, adjacent farmlands are washed out, irrigation canals damaged, and households lose crops, homes, and assets.

The local communities are thus living under a kind of climate whiplash: in one season, their wells go dry, livestock perish, and children suffer malnutrition; in the next, deluges drown fields, cut roads, and uproot homes. During these cycles, farmers lose not only harvests, but faith: faith that the rains will come, that the land will support them, that their children will eat.

The Kenyan Government and county authorities have not stood idly by. At the national level, Kenya has declared climate change a development priority and repeatedly responded to drought and flood emergencies with relief programs, cash transfers, food aid, and infrastructural repair. Particularly for Tana River, the county government has been rolling out a County Climate Change Action Plan (2023–2027), aligned with national frameworks, to build resilience, invest in water infrastructure, promote sustainable land use, and mainstream climate considerations into county budgeting. The county has also established a County Climate Change Fund, allocated a share of its development budget, and enacted a Climate Change Act (2021) to ensure adaptation efforts have legal backing.

But even with local support leading climate adaptation and mitigation, the gap between planning and impact remains wide. That is where humanitarian and development organisations step in as partners in resilience building.

A Journey with Farmers in Tana River.

Considering the situation at hand, with climate extremes, fragile food systems, and communities asking for support, Concern Worldwide has taken up a critical role in Tana River through the LEAF series of interventions (Lifesaving Education and Assistance to Farmers). Over time, the project has matured, deepened, and adapted, culminating in LEAF III (2024–2025), funded by Archer Daniels Midland (ADM).

The ambition of LEAF III is to build the longer flame of resilience. Concern and ADM aim to aid communities recover from drought emergencies, adopt climate-smart agriculture, strengthen value chains, and reduce extreme poverty.

What Has Been Done — and What It Has Achieved

Foundations laid in LEAF I & II

• LEAF I (Nov 2019 – June 2021): Concern reached about 6,404 farmer households (≈ 39,700 people), including women and children. Alongside sustainable farming practices, nutrition screening and treatment was a core component.
• LEAF II (to Aug 2022): Expanded to 10,947 households. But this period coincided with Kenya’s worst drought in over 40 years. An estimated 5.6 million people across ASAL (arid and semi-arid lands) suffered food insecurity; Tana River was among the hardest hit, with over 35 % of its population classed as food and nutrition insecure by May 2023. Staple food prices rose sharply: maize was 22–63 % above the five-year average; beans 12–44 %.
• Combined over the two phases, farmers produced more than 1.3 million kg of diverse crops (maize, green grams, cowpeas, watermelon, tomatoes, capsicum, rice, sweet melon) valued at ≈ US$440,647. Also, 16,244 children under five were screened and assisted. At the end of LEAF II, 40 % of the supported communities were farming self-sufficiently without further inputs from Concern.

These outcomes showed that a holistic package, one that links nutrition, agriculture, and markets, can bear fruit in such a risky setting. Yet many farmers described themselves at a “tipping point”: a minor shock could push them back into crisis.

LEAF III (Jan 2024 – Sept 2025): A more adaptive, ambitious push

With that fragility in mind, LEAF III was designed to accompany communities further along the resilience path, supporting them to withstand shocks and gradually scale their farming, markets, and nutrition.

Core outcomes & interventions

1. Production through climate-smart agriculture

• A total of 5,348 new farmers were brought into LEAF III.
• Inputs such as drought-tolerant hybrid seeds, certified seed varieties, and extension services were distributed in a differentiated fashion (100 % support for the most vulnerable, partial support for others).
• Over the project period, 2,432 farmers received seeds (maize DK-777, green grams KS20, vegetables, rice, melon, etc.).
• Tractor services were subsidized: 1,175 acres across 1,435 farmers (861 female, 574 male) were tilled and ridged.
• Canal irrigation support: 761 farmers accessed canal water for 510 acres (bringing cumulative to 1,125 acres). This irrigation buffer allowed crops to navigate dry spells and critical growth phases.

2. Capacity and technical support

• 26 ward agriculture officers (6 women, 20 men) were engaged to deliver extension.
• 28 Community Owned Resource Persons (CoRPs) were trained and mobilized to act as local bridges.
• Adoption of climate-smart practices rose strongly:
  • Improved crop practices usage went from 64 % to 90 %.
  • Plant health & hygiene up from 6 % to 38 %.
  • Integrated Pest Management climbed from 10 % to 29 %.
  • Soil structure, agroforestry, conservation agriculture, integrated soil fertility management all saw gains.
• 310 soil samples covering 2,031 acres (from 2,951 plots) were analyzed; results shared with farmers along with tailored recommendations (e.g. manure, biochar, moisture conservation).

3. Value chains, aggregation, and markets

• 23 farmer associations (on top of existing ones) were formed, bringing the total to 60.
• Offtaker partnership: Nutri Nuts & Fruits agreed to offload green grams directly from farmers, paying KES 100/kg (versus market KES 60). So far, 97 tonnes have been purchased, worth KES 9.7 million (~USD 74,615), through a traceable online system (Ketha).
• A 25-tonne solar drying facility was established to process cereals, pulses, nuts, enabling better post-harvest handling, aggregation, and quality control.
• Farmers have been linked to private sector supply, bypassing exploitative middlemen.

4. Financial inclusion & business skills

• 102 VSLA groups (1,939 members) were formed, 72 % of whom are women.
• Savings now stand at KES 6.8 million, with loans issued to farmers to support agribusinesses.
• Financial literacy and business training were delivered to all 5,348 farmers.

5. Nutrition & health linkage

• 40 Community Health Promoters (CHPs) were trained and deployed across community units.
• CHPs conducted routine household visits, screening children (6–59 months) via MUAC. In total 7,368 children were screened; 262 children (253 with moderate acute malnutrition, 9 with severe) were referred or continued treatment.
• The county’s Nutrition Action Plan was developed, policies harmonized, and multisectoral coordination strengthened.

6. Community engagement & governance

• 93 community dialogue sessions (Community Conversations) reached 3,233 people (1,845 women, 1,388 men), enabling communities themselves to reflect on challenges—food insecurity, water scarcity, infrastructure and propose solutions collectively.
• Quarterly coordination forums, agricultural shows, exposure visits, and sector platforms were facilitated to strengthen linkages with government, research, and private sector.

Where LEAF III Has Succeeded — and Where the Road Still Buckles

• Yield leaps: For multiple value chains, the achieved yield per hectare far exceeded target values. For instance:
  • Maize: 935 kg (vs target 546 kg)
  • Watermelon: 15,600 kg (vs target 7,284)
  • Tomatoes: 9,728 kg (vs 6,070)
  • Capsicum: 7,321 kg (vs 6,070)
  • Rice: 1,667 kg (vs 1,093)
• Market linkages with dignity: Farmers are now receiving stable, transparent pricing and immediate payments via the Ketha system. This shifts power away from brokers and toward producers.
• Scale and inclusion: Over 15,748 farmers (6,159 male, 9,589 female) have benefitted across all LEAF phases, with more than 5,348 new participants in III alone.
• Behavioral change and embedded capacity: The upward shift in adoption of climate-smart practices suggests that farmers are internalizing knowledge, not just following instructions.
• Women empowered: A significant share of beneficiaries, especially in VSLAs and agriculture inputs, are women, reflecting pro-gender targeting.
• Nutritional gains: High screening coverage and improved food consumption scores (from baseline) indicate strides toward healthier households.
• Community voice: Through dialogues, locals are shaping the priorities and solutions—the project is not “imposing” but co-designing.

Challenges and fragilities

• Conflict and insecurity: Late 2024 saw communal violence in Tana North, which disrupted farming, destroyed property, and eroded trust. Some farmers retreated from their plots; extension services and health outreach were interrupted. Though peace largely holds now, the scars remain.
• Water inconsistency in some schemes: Hola irrigation faced unreliable canal water during a transitional phase from diesel pumps to electric pumping systems, complicating cultivation.
• Budgetary bottlenecks: The presidential policy centralizing revenue collection slowed disbursement to the National Irrigation Authority (NIA) and County, delaying canal maintenance, pump operations, and feeder roads.
• Fragile sustainability: For some farmers, the gains feel tentative—another drought or flood could wipe out the advances.
• Market and infrastructure constraints: While the offtaker model is promising, scaling it across multiple value chains in remote, flood- or drought-prone areas remains challenging. Transport, storage, and cold chain logistics remain weak.
• Nutrition vs. agriculture balance: Ensuring that increased production translates into diverse, nutrient-rich diets (and not just cash crops) remains a balancing act.
• Climate unpredictability: No matter how well designed, shocks (e.g. extreme floods, droughts, pests) will continue to test resilience.

What the Numbers Whisper (and Shout)

From the endline conducted in September 2025:

• Household Production Diversity Score: targeted 7; baseline 4.3; achieved 3.8
• % of households accessing credit: target 73 %; baseline 63 %; achieved 77 %
• Household Dietary Diversity Score (24-hour recall): target 8.9; baseline 5.9; achieved 5.7
• Food Consumption Score (adequate %) : target 89.04 %; baseline 79.04 %; achieved 87.3 %

Some divergences (e.g. the diversity and dietary scores) show that even when production rises, nutritional outcomes lag, and behavior, access, and education matter.

In terms of output indicators:

• 2,432 farmers received certified seeds (beyond target)
• 1,125 acres accessed canal water (beyond target)
• 1,175 acres tilled with tractor support
• 15,748 farmers received extension services
• 60 farmer associations formed or supported
• 7,368 children screened

These metrics speak not only of scale, but of breadth: the project touched agriculture, markets, health, community dialogue, and governance.

Looking Ahead: Holding the Gains, Preparing for the Next Storm

Considering all these factors at play, what lies ahead?

• Strengthen sustainability: The durability of gains depends on local ownership, cost-sharing for inputs, and embedding services within county institutions. Concern and partners should phase gradual exit support, linking farmers more firmly to county extension, private sector, cooperatives, and subsidies.
• Bridge to markets: Expand the offtaker model to more crops, improve transport and storage, and coordinate with county and national efforts to open regional and export markets.
• Nutrition deepening: More emphasis on crop choice (nutrient-dense crops), behavior change for diverse diets, kitchen gardens, and maternal-child health linkages.
• Conflict resilience and social cohesion: Strengthen peacebuilding, local mediation, and contingency plans to protect farming continuity in times of communal tension.
• Adaptive finance: Explore weather-indexed insurance, microcredit for climate stress, and contingency funding for rapid response to shocks.
• Monitoring and flexible adaptation: Continue rigorous data collection, feedback mechanisms, and agile pivoting when climate or conflict conditions shift.
• Policy influence: Use the evidence and community voice to advocate for county and national support—e.g. subsidized inputs, canal/road maintenance, water storage infrastructure, and climate-smart agricultural policies.

Diving deeper into these complexities, we see that the story of Tana River is one of incremental hope. The floodwaters that threatened to wash away life and livelihoods can become a valuable resource if harnessed carefully. The droughts that left fields parched can be withstood through smart inputs, irrigation, and community foresight. When you travel along the banks of Tana, you might see fields of tomatoes, melons, green grams—grown in soils once hardened by drought or washed by floods. You might hear farmers talking about yield, credit, markets, diets, challenges and how LEAF helped shift the narrative from “mere survival” to “hopeful production.”

Authors and collaborators: Shaloam Strooper- Media and Communications Officer, Concern Worldwide. Alex Ogeto – Programme Manager Livelihoods, Concern Worldwide, Jackson Mekenye – Livelihoods Coordinator, Concern Worldwide.