SAMM Zambia labour migration trends report

1. Background and context

The Southern Africa Migration Management (SAMM) project is a model of a ONE-UN approach collaborative effort between 4 UN development and humanitarian agencies: the ILO, the IOM, UNODC and UNHCR. The (SAMM) project forms part of the European Union Regional Indicative Programme (11th EDF RIP) for Eastern Africa, Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean (2014–2020) which includes among its objectives the facilitation of safe, orderly and regular migration and the prevention of irregular migration. It focuses on South-South migration flows, identifying positive spill-over effects of international migration on regional integration and regional economic development.

Its overall objective is to improve migration management in the Southern Africa and Indian Ocean region guided by, and contributing to, the realisation of the 2030 Development Agenda (goals 8 and 10).

It is comprised of two main project components: 1. Labour Migration; and 2. Mixed Migration. The first component supports the implementation of the UN Global Compact on Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the second one the application of the UN Global Compact on Refugees (GCR), as well as of the GCM.

Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are key stakeholders in SAMM’s implementation. One of SAMM’s key project priorities is to support the formulation and realisation of International Labour Migration and Mixed Migration Frameworks of: i) the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), ii) the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and; iii) the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC).

The project focuses on the Southern African Region, and targets the following 16 SADC countries: Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

2. Technical Context

The Southern African region has had a long history of intra-regional migration. All Southern African countries are involved in labour migration flows as countries of origin, transit, and/or destination, and often they play all three roles at the same time. Yet, although labour migration within, from and towards Southern Africa has been a historical feature of the region, there remains a lack of comprehensive data on the size, flows, and types of labour migration.

Labour migration in Africa is largely characterized by movements of workers to regional labour markets within the continent, seeking employment and other economic opportunities. Indeed, more than 80% of labour migration flows of African nationals take place within the African continent.1 In Southern Africa, this figure has in recent years dropped to 45%, suggesting that most migrants to Southern Africa are coming from outside the sub-region. Demand in economic sectors such as mining, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, health, education, tourism, hospitality and household services are significant drivers of labour mobility to and within the sub-region. African migrants, asylum seekers and forcibly displaced persons often use the same migration routes.

The second edition of the African Union’s Report on Labour Migration Statistics in Africa2 finds that the employment rate of international migrants in Africa is often higher than that of the general population, with rates as high as 94.6% in Ghana and 90.1% in Nigeria.3 Yearly growth rates of migrant workers also tend to be higher than the respective growth rates of the total population and labour force in all African sub-regions (particularly in Southern Africa) except in West Africa. However, these figures, particularly for Southern Africa, are based on very limited official national data.

The ILO also developed a comprehensive methodology for global and regional estimates of migrant workers and generated estimates in 2015 (reference year for data is 2013) to fill knowledge gaps on global migration data. Following improvements made to the methodology, new global estimates were published in 2018 (reference year is 2017). Also in these reports, data on Southern African countries was sorely lacking.

Improving the knowledge base in the area of migration statistics, particularly labour migration statistics, will contribute to a better understanding of the underlying causes of poverty and social exclusion, as well as contribute to strengthening labour markets in Southern Africa. In this context, Southern African countries have made the development of evidence-based
policies on labour migration part of their priorities in reporting on progress on various Agenda 2063/SDG targets, as well as through adopting and implementing the SADC Labour Migration Action Plan and Labour Migration Policy Framework*.4* The Action Plan recognizes the need to collect quality information on employment trends and decent work deficits among migrant workers as well as the resident population, which is comparable across countries and over time. Combining comparable data on labour migration with existing mechanisms for skills matching will also create new opportunities to support implementation of the Action Plan.

The 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) endorsed Guidelines concerning statistics of international labour migration5 in October 2018, to provide international recommendations regarding concepts, definitions and methodologies for the measurement of international labour migration, the lack of which being a significant obstacle to the production of comparable and harmonised statistics. Together with a proposed set of minimum labour migration indicators for Southern Africa, the ICLS guidelines will form the basis for an analytical framework for the current study.

The experience with the two rounds of data compilation through the JLMP on African Labour migration statistics (2015 and 2017), as well as the ILO’s Global Estimates reports (using the ILMQ), has shown that there are still considerable limitations to International Labour Migration data in Southern Africa in terms of geographical coverage and completeness (for instance, where data is available, most reports lacks some important disaggregations for African countries, such as educational attainment). The absence of such data can have to do with various factors, such as limited sources of information, difficulty in identifying migrant workers in censuses or household surveys, irregular data collection schedules and lack of coverage of migrant-dense areas, incoherence of definitions and concepts, etc.

Work under this consultancy is linked to SAMM’s Workplan as follows: Result/output 2.1: A framework of central LMIS database integrating labour migration module is developed; and Result/output 2.4: Production of reports.
Activity 2.1.4.4: Pilot countries are provided with technical and financial support to implement pilot updated Labour Migration Module in Labour Force Surveys and Labour Market Information Systems;
Activity 2.4.1.1: The relevant national stakeholders develop national labour migration reports, with technical support from the UN agencies.

NOTES:

1 Flahaux, Marie-Laurence, De Haas, Hein, 2016. African migration: trends, patterns, drivers, Comparative Migration Studies
2 African Union Commission (AUC), 2021. Report on Labour Migration Statistics in Africa (Third Edition). Addis Ababa
3 The AUC report also finds migrant worker employment rates as low as 43.2% in Botswana and 49% in Eswatini.
4 These priorities are reflected in the African Union Commission’s (AUC) biennial report on data on labour migration in Africa, as part of data component of the adopted the Joint Labour Migration Programme of the AU.
5 ILO, 2018. Guidelines concerning statistics of international labour migration

3. Objectives and Outputs

Given the context of incoherence and lack of data on labour migration in most Southern African and Indian Ocean countries, the objective of this consultancy is to increase the availability of labour migration statistics and analysis in the SADC Labour Market Observatory (LMO), Zambia and Zimbabwe, including where possible on recruitment costs as measured through the SDG Indicator 10.7.1. The consultancy will consist of the following activities and outputs:
a) Detailed workplan including methodological framework, proposed report structure, preliminary secondary sources to be used, and proposed timelines.
b) A first draft of a Zambia Labour Migration Trends Report, based on the SAMM Minimum Labour Migration Indicators brief, and focusing on documenting and analysing available official national statistics on labour migration in order to illustrate trends as well as provide evidence-based guidance to policymakers, modelled on the AU’s Report on Labour Migration Statistics in Africa and ILO’s Global Estimates on Migrant Workers report.
c) A second draft of a Zambia Labour Migration Trends Report, taking into account comments from national stakeholders as well as SAMM partner agencies.
d) At least two advocacy products (powerpoint presentations, summary briefs, etc) based on the above outputs.
The Zambia Labour Migration Trends Report should at a minimum consist of the following:
– Review of existing quantitative studies/analyses of labour migration and data management in Zambia (including, but not limited to IOM Country profiles);
– Analysis of existing national labour migration trends, addressing the following issues:
o labour migration governance trends;
o labour market integration/outcomes, human capital, and economic impacts of migrant workers; and
o migrants’ contributions to economic growth in the country of interest
o (modelled after CH 2 – 5 of the How Immigrants Contribute to South Africa’s Economy report produced by ILO/OECD, to the extent possible).
– Analysis of Zambia’s capacity to report on SAMM minimum labour migration indicators, based on existing data sources, data collection methods, and inter-agency coordination;
– Recommendations based on the above for evidence-based labour migration governance as well as potential/future ILO technical/capacity building interventions in Zambia.
The methodology for the assessment is to be fully developed by the consultant as part of his/her workplan. The analytical report should be clearly structured, comprehensively written, and delivered in a final manuscript form of publishable quality, with complete source and figure references according to ILO’s style guidelines, and no more than 40 pages.

4. Qualifications and Experience Required

Education: Advanced university degree in Statistics, Development Studies, Economics, Migration studies, Public Policy, Management, or other relevant Social Sciences degree with a focus on quantitative dimensions.
Experience: At least 5 years of demonstrated experience with national statistical systems and/or data management, as well as demonstrated experience with international labour migration statistics, preferably in SADC countries. Country-level experience in at least some of the SADC countries is an advantage.
Languages: Excellent command of English. Working knowledge of French and/or Portuguese is an advantage.

5. Terms of Contract for Consultant

The consultant will be responsible for all expected outputs mentioned in the terms of reference. A total of XXX will be paid for the work.

6. Timeline and payment breakdown

The contract will cover a total of XXX non-consecutive working days.
Starting date: 01/08/2023
End date: 01/11/2023
Payments will be disbursed as follows:
✓ 30% of the total or XXX US dollars upon the completion of a workplan/inception report (deliverable a) no later than DD/MMM/2023 to the satisfaction of the ILO.
✓ 30% of the total or XXX US dollars upon the submission of a first draft report (deliverable b) no later than DD/MMM/2023 to the satisfaction of the ILO.
✓ 40% of the total or XXX US dollars upon the submission of all deliverables no later than DD/MMM/2023 to the satisfaction of the ILO.

7. Supervision and Reporting
The service provider will report to the Chief Technical Advisor of the Southern Africa Migration Management (SAMM) project, Ms Gloria Moreno-Fontes (mfontes@ilo.org) under the daily supervision of the project’s Technical Officer on Labour Migration and Data, Mr Jesse Mertens (mertens@ilo.org), who will coordinate with relevant ILO Specialists, SAMM implementing partners, and national stakeholders.

9. References
OECD/ILO (2018), How Immigrants Contribute to Ghana’s Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_protect/—protrav/—migrant/documents/publication/wcms_634506.pdf
OECD/ILO (2018), How Immigrants Contribute to South Africa’s Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_protect/—protrav/—migrant/documents/publication/wcms_635964.pdf
AU/ILO/IOM (2021). Report on Labour Migration Statistics in Africa (3rd ed). AUC: Addis Ababa. https://www.ilo.org/africa/whats-new/WCMS_829470/lang–en/index.htm
ILO/OECD. Assessing the economic contribution of labour migration in developing countries as countries of destination (ECLM) project http://www.ilo.org/eclm
ILO (2015). Global estimates on migrant workers. Results and methodology. ILO: Geneva. https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/labour-migration/publications/WCMS_436343/lang–en/index.htm
ILO (2020). SAMM Minimum Labour Market Indicators brief. https://www.sammproject.org/download/southern-africa-and-indian-ocean-labour-migration-indicators/?wpdmdl=4853&refresh=62d03888cea3d1657813128
ILO (2019). ICLS Guidelines on Labour Migration Statistics. https://www.sammproject.org/download/icls-guidelines-on-labour-migration-statistics-2/?wpdmdl=6449&refresh=62d03888aee781657813128