Sudan and Gaza: Highest Civilian Harm Per Incident Revealed by AOAV Data

Recent findings from Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) have highlighted Sudan and Gaza as the two conflict zones with the highest civilian harm per incident involving explosive violence.

Sudan: An Overlooked Humanitarian Catastrophe

In 2023 and 2024, Sudan emerged as the most lethal conflict zone per incident, with an average of 19 civilian casualties per explosive event in 2023, rising to 20.1 in 2024. These figures, based on AOAV’s Explosive Violence Monitor, underscore the intense and often indiscriminate nature of violence in Sudan, which disproportionately affects civilian populations.

The dataset highlights the frequent use of heavy artillery, airstrikes, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in populated areas. The concentration of violence in urban centres and displacement camps exacerbates civilian suffering, with limited infrastructure further hindering medical and humanitarian responses.

Despite these alarming statistics, Sudan remains underrepresented in global discussions and media coverage about explosive violence. This oversight contributes to a lack of coordinated international efforts to mitigate the harm inflicted on civilians in the region.

Gaza: Civilian Harm Amplified by Urban Density

Gaza, a region synonymous with high-intensity conflict, consistently records some of the highest civilian casualties per incident globally. In 2023, Gaza reported an average of 14.2 civilian casualties per incident, with a slight decrease to 8.1 in 2024. However, these figures remain alarmingly high, reflecting the unique challenges posed by Gaza’s dense urban environment.

AOAV’s analysis attributes much of this harm to air-launched explosive weapons used in densely populated areas. The inherent difficulty in avoiding civilian casualties in such environments has made Gaza a focal point for discussions on the ethics and legality of modern warfare. According to the AOAV dataset, nearly all incidents in Gaza occurred in populated areas, amplifying the human cost of the conflict.

Methodology Behind the Data

AOAV employs a rigorous methodology adapted from models developed by Landmine Action and Medact in 2009. The organisation gathers data from English-language media reports on factors such as the date, location, weapon type, and casualty numbers of each incident.

To ensure consistency, AOAV only records incidents with clearly stated casualty figures. Reports must detail at least one casualty resulting from an explosive weapon, and ambiguous descriptions like “several” or “numerous” casualties are excluded. This method provides a reliable indicator of the scale and pattern of harm caused by explosive violence worldwide.

Incidents occurring in populated areas are categorised based on specific criteria, including attacks in markets, schools, hospitals, and residential neighbourhoods. Such classifications, aligned with international humanitarian law, allow AOAV to spotlight the disproportionate impact of explosive violence on civilians in densely populated zones.

Limitations of the Dataset

While AOAV’s Explosive Violence Monitor offers critical insights, the dataset is subject to limitations inherent to its reliance on media reports. English-language sources dominate the data, potentially overlooking incidents reported in other languages. Moreover, the data captures only the immediate aftermath of attacks, leaving long-term impacts and fatalities from subsequent injuries underrepresented.

Additionally, in conflict zones like Sudan and Gaza, the chaotic nature of reporting during escalations can obscure the full scale of harm. Despite these challenges, AOAV’s methodology provides a vital tool for understanding and addressing the human cost of explosive violence.

Other Key Conflict Zones

• Ukraine: Ranking as the second most affected country in both 2023 and 2024, Ukraine experienced frequent incidents but with lower casualties per attack, averaging 3 civilian casualties in 2023 and 4 in 2024.
• Lebanon: Civilian casualties per incident surged dramatically from 2.2 in 2023 to 13 in 2024, reflecting an intensification in the lethality of violence.
• Myanmar: Casualty rates rose from 2.2 in 2023 to 7.5 in 2024, underscoring an escalation in conflict intensity.
• Syria: With 2 civilian casualties per incident in 2023 and 2.4 in 2024, Syria’s rates remain comparatively stable but still significant.

A Global Call to Action

AOAV’s findings highlight the urgent need for international action to address the civilian toll of explosive violence. In regions like Sudan and Gaza, where harm per incident far exceeds global averages, there is a pressing need for stricter adherence to international humanitarian law, enhanced accountability, and better-targeted humanitarian assistance.

Policymakers, humanitarian organisations, and the global community must prioritise mitigating civilian harm in these regions. AOAV’s data serves as a sobering reminder of the devastating human cost of modern conflict and the critical need for strategies to protect civilians from the indiscriminate use of explosive weapons.