Climate Change, Damage and Displacement in Rift Valley Researcher

UNOPS is host to several projects, including the Secretariat of the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD), a state-led initiative to follow up on the work started by the Nansen Initiative on cross-border disaster-displacement and to implement the recommendations of the Nansen Initiative Protection Agenda. The overall objective of the PDD is:

To support States and other stakeholders to strengthen the protection of persons displaced across borders in the context of disasters and the adverse effects of climate change, and to prevent or reduce disaster displacement risks in countries of origin.

To work towards this objective, the Steering Group of the PDD have set the following four strategic priorities based on the recommendations of the Protection Agenda for the period 2019-2023:

1. Support integrated implementation of global policy frameworks on human mobility, climate change action and disaster risk reduction that are relevant for disaster displaced persons;
2. Promote policy and normative development to address gaps in the protection of persons at risk of displacement or displaced across borders;
3. Facilitate exchange of knowledge and strengthen capacity at the national and regional levels to implement effective practices and instruments that can prevent, reduce and address disaster displacement;
4. Strengthen evidence and data on disaster displacement and its impacts.

In December 2021, the PDD Secretariat has started implementing the Project to Avert, Minimize and Address Disaster Displacement (PAMAD), with the aim to:

• Develop a better understanding of displacement in the context of losses and damages associated with climate change.
• Support measures aimed at averting, minimizing and addressing displacement and its impacts for vulnerable people and communities.

The project focuses on translating into practice global policy recommendations on Loss and Damage and Displacement around: 1) Knowledge Development; 2) Displacement Risk Assessment; 3) Disaster Displacement Preparedness; 4) Integrated Planning Processes; and 5) Access to Finance. The geographical scope of the project covers 4 countries, namely Fiji, Bangladesh, Kenya and Guatemala. Working with Governmental and non-governmental partners, the PDD has been elaborating a set of national implementation plans that detail how the 5 global areas of work can be implemented in each country. The plans identify concrete measures that respond to locally-recognised priorities related to preventing and addressing impacts of climate-related hazards, and filling existing policy, operations and capacity gaps.

Functional Responsibilities

The overall objective of this consultancy is to produce a case study which will outline the main displacement issues related with lake swelling in the Rift Valley area. The study should look at how affected communities have been impacted through displacement due to the rising water level, elaborating on short and long-term social and economic impacts due to evacuation, protracted displacement and inability/unwillingness to return in places of habitual residence. The study should investigate how community structures, access to services, livelihood security, personal security, quality of housing, security of land tenure and any other relevant dimension have been affected by displacement, and what interventions have been effective in addressing and resolving such negative repercussions. The case study should also focus on future risks linked with this phenomenon, including potential triggers and impacts, and the implications of potential environmental degradation for people’s mobility decisions. It should also provide evidence-based recommendations for policy and action.

Country background: Climate Change and displacement in Kenya

Natural and man-made hazards, compounded by climate change and environmental degradation, pose significant threats to Kenya’s communities and society. The largest economy in East Africa, and the regions’ hub for commerce and communications, Kenya is also largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, livestock rearing and tourism. These sectors are highly vulnerable to weather patterns and environmental variability, and will be heavily impacted by climate change. Increased variability has already translated into more frequent drought and floods, a trend that is expected to be exacerbated as temperatures continue to rise.

In particular, Kenya’s Rif Valley has been facing significant impacts (including displacement) due to the rise of water levels (e.g. Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria). Lakes in the Rift Valley sustain local citizens, attract tourism, and provide water for irrigation for the land of riverine communities. Rising levels have affected land availability, damaged infrastructure, undermined livelihoods linked with the presence of hot springs, and multiplied interaction with wildlife (crocodiles, hippos).

All these impacts have resulted in population displacement, which has not always been adequately planned for, managed or resolved. This has had significant impacts on local communities, which are now facing lasting, cascading impacts that require urgent and long-term responses.

Scope and aim of the case study

The study to be developed under the present ToR is expected to compile detailed information on the impacts of lake swelling on population movements in the Rift Valley in Kenya, and on the impacts of such movements on the well-being and security of affected populations. The exact geographic scope of the study shall be determined in coordination with the programme manager and key Kenyan stakeholders, and based on the literature review.

The study should provide evidence for the elaboration of policy and operational recommendations targeting national and local authorities, humanitarian and development actors on how to mitigate, prepare for, address and resolve relevant displacement issues. In order to do so, it should explore:

1. Key mobility trends in the study area, and how lake swelling has changed mobility patters for people directly and indirectly affected;
2. How displacement has affected well-being and security of those affected, and in what ways it has reduced their access to basic resources, services, opportunities in the short and long-term;
3. What practices have been rolled out in the area in order to address displacement and its impacts, and how successful they have been;
4. What scenarios face communities, and how their mobility decisions are being affected by continuing impacts and risks;
5. What gaps in capacity/resource allocation still exist to fulfilling the rights of displaced persons..

Methodology

The expectation is for the study to be compiled through a mixed methodology, based on a review of relevant literature, the analysis of data compiled by key operational actors in the selected geographical areas, as well as direct data collection with practitioners and members of local communities. The application to the present consultancy includes preparing a short CN with a proposed methodological approach, to be further discussed and approved with the project manager and key stakeholders following the start of the research activities.

Timeline and deliverables

The expected total duration of the activity is 8 months. In the course of this period, the consultant shall be responsible for:

• Output 1: Approved methodological approach (by week 2 of the consultancy)
• Output 2: Draft outline and research timelines (by week 2 of the consultancy)
• Output 3: Synthesis* of key issues in study areas (by week 6 of the consultancy)
• Output 4: First draft of the case study report (by the end of the 6th month of the consultancy)
• Output 4: Final (revised) case study report** (by the end of the 8th month of the consultancy)

*The synthesis is expected to be a 4-pager highlighting key issues in the study area as identified based on the literature review. The document shall be used as an input for global policy processes on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

**The final report is expected to be a 30,000 word document, detailing:

• Key outcomes of the literature review
• Methodological considerations and overview of data collection efforts
• Analysis of key issues
• Recommendations for policy and practice

The consultant is expected to provide a text not needing significant editing for language, and aligned with the PDD publication style guide. Proofreading will be included in the review process. If English editing will be deemed necessary, it will be the consultant’s responsibility to provide it to a level that will be considered acceptable to the reviewers.

Target audience

The report shall target local and national government officials in Kenya, as well as practitioners from the international communities, and policy-makers engaging in global policy streams on Environment Conservation, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. As such, the report is expected to be a technical document directed to a public not primarily specialized on displacement and mobility issues. As such, it needs to be technically sound but shall not make use of technical jargon on displacement, migration and mobility.

Risk factors and mitigation options

The consultant is expected to both survey existing knowledge produced in the Rift Valley around the case study’s issues and perform original research to fill identified knowledge gaps. Given the amount of work that has already gone into analyzing the intersection between environmental degradation, climate change and human mobility, including in Kenya, there is a significant risk of overlap and lack of originality in the research and its outcomes. The consultant is expected to mitigate this risk through a careful literature review, and by agreeing to a geographical and thematic scoping of the study with the project manager.

While the consultant is expected to produce some original research through primary data collection, it is understood that access issues might prevent access to study areas. Should that be the case, solutions shall be found in collaboration with the project manager and other project partners.